Buys since April 17, 2017

I apparently haven’t written in more than two months.

The title is on ‘buys’ since the country I currently reside in (I live outside the Philippines) makes us report global income, hence I would need to report all the cash divs minus the tax that have been withheld in the Philippines (as it has a tax treaty with the country where I live). It also inhibits (whether in a good way or bad) all my sell transactions. I need to really think before pulling the trigger on a ‘sell’ as I would get hit with a capital gains tax.

As per my last post, I was thinking of buying FGEN and IMI. I bought both, buying FGEN @ ₱21.00 and IMI @ ₱7.90 a few days later. Since then, and compared to today’s price, FGEN is down by around 11.8%, while IMI is up by a whopping 71.4%.

I have also bought CHIB rights (as per previous posts), and the IPO’s of both EAGLE (up by around 7.8%) and CLI (up by around 9.9%).

I have bought AP twice as I’m steadily accumulating the stock, @₱40.05 and @₱39.75. The stock closed today @₱38.65 so I’m a few percentage points down.

I completely missed the bus on ROX. I was trying to get a hold of it in the ₱2.85 range in late April but wasn’t able to acquire it and it’s now around ₱5.00.

Today, I also bought some more CHIB @₱36.85 (as it just got a ratings upgrade from Moody’s) and MPI @₱6.27 (as I think it got a good deal for the extra stake in Meralco and Global Power).

Been checking out PHN the past few days, but it just went up by 4.1% today which makes me wonder if I should still watch it at that price. HLCM’s drop also seems a bit too much. BLFI, COSCO, PIP and RFM are also on my current watchlist.

I’m glad I wasn’t able to sell WLCON, as I was planning to sell in the mid ₱5’s (for around a 10% gain), and it’s now at ₱7.95 (or around 56% up from IPO).

 

 

 

Sold MWIDE, MEG

Sold the MWIDE I mistakenly bought two weeks ago @ ₱17.72 for ₱18.48. That just gives me a cautionary tale that I should try to give it a second thought before trading as it reminds me of Eugene Fama’s Efficient Market Hypothesis. If you aren’t familiar with it, here’s a couple of links:

It also makes me think I should have just waited for FMETF before investing in a couple of UITFs in 2012. I also invested in PHILEQT back in Dec 2014 with no gains since. But that’s another story. Glad Pinoy Money Talk is posting again about UITFs.

I also sold some MEG holdings for ₱4.05 as it has gone up quite a bit from two weeks ago and even though I believe it will still go up, I try to risk manage if I think I can use the money for another stock.

I’m currently looking into buying IMI (ex-divs today) and FGEN… aside from those I mentioned in my last post.

Sell SHLPH? Some stocks to watch

SHLPH share price has slowly been going down from a peak of ₱80.00 to today’s close of ₱72.45. Was hoping of selling some of my holdings at around the ₱74++ mark, the only thing that’s stopping me is that the company intends to give out 75% of its earnings as cash dividends. To make a not-so-informed analysis of that, from the ₱4.68/share (2016 earnings) would give around a 4.8% div yield at today’s price. A rate that only a handful of other shares can top.

HLCM, another stock with good div yield has also been going down, partially (and supposedly) because of the anticipated listing of Eagle Cement.

Current stocks on my watchlist to buy (aside from HLCM @₱15.02) are as follows:

  • AP (₱41.30)
  • ELI (₱0.66)
  • FLI (₱1.63)
  • GTCAP (₱1134)
  • MEG (₱3.44)
  • ROX (₱2.75)

Still smarting from my mistakenly buying more MWIDE @ ₱17.72, extra shares of which I’ll probably sell if it goes anywhere near today’s high of ₱18.42.

I’m seeing a couple of outlets expecting WLCON to go up to ₱6.00 pretty soon. I’ll likely get out before that to fund other underappreciated stocks as the market has been in this range of around 7140 to 7370 since it suddenly jumped during the first trading week of the year.

 

 

Sold GLO @ ₱2022, mistakenly bought MWIDE @ ₱17.72

So… I was supposed to sell some MWIDE… BUT, with the platform I’m using one could easily make a mistake of buying instead of selling… sooo… I bought some MWIDE even though I was intending to sell some, given that it was just at ₱14.88 a few weeks back (Mar 6, 2017). I’m crossing my fingers (and being irrational) that this will be a re-run of when I mistakenly bought TUGS instead of selling it a few months back. TUGS went up probably double of what I made… but I had sold it by that time. For a while MWIDE was trading at ₱17.80 after I bought it… but it closed at ₱17.50. Oh well. Maybe I’ll just hold on to it for the long term.

Sold some Globe Telecom at ₱2022 (it closed ten pesos above that) as it was just ₱1479 on Dec 28, 2016… had to lock in some gains, aside from it being right after the quarterly cash divs of GLO (paid earlier in Mar).  GLO quarterly cash divs were at ₱22.75 / share last time around, which gives around a 4.5% p.a. yield @ ₱2000 / share.

Also received some cash divs of MWC (of 0.4244 / share) today. MWC typically gives out cash divs twice a year in Mar and Oct. Yield is approximately 2.7% p.a.

Sold LTG, Bought ALCO, CPG, MPI, WLCON, and SGI

Sold half of my LTG shares for ₱14.90 back in Mar 22 that in hindsight might not have been the best thing to do (it closed at ₱16.08 today), especially since my net gain was just slightly over 3% for holding a stock for more than three months. This is below my IRR of greater than 11%. I guess I just thought that it’s better to gain rather than see and wait for a stock in case it goes below purchase price. I did hold on to my other half of shares which is currently showing a paper gain of around over 19%.

As I said in previous posts on what I was planning to purchase, in the past week I bought some more ALCO @ ₱1.38, CPG @ ₱0.495, MPI @ ₱6.12 and SGI @ ₱1.39.

Looking at HLCM the past few days, but it went up 3.2% today, so I might hold off… or maybe buy at the higher price. May sell some GLO or MWIDE as I’d need to get ready for the stock rights of CHIB (to be priced on Apr 6, offered from Apr 24 to May 5, with a tentative listing date of May 10).

Excited about the WLCON listing tomorrow. Got a very limited amount of shares. Read somewhere it was 3x oversubscribed. At the offer price though, the price was quite dear. Let’s see how the market thinks about it tomorrow.

PHN ex-divs tomorrow, payment is supposed to be on Apr 21. Also received my PX cash div of ₱0.04 / share and BEL’s cash div of ₱0.095 / share recently (PX’s cash div yield is so low I’m not going to even try to compute it, BEL’s is around 2.3%).

Bought SMPH @ ₱28.75 and DMC @ ₱12.06

Bought some additional SMPH and DMC on March 16th, adding to the SMPH I had bought in mid-Oct last year (@₱26.90) and averaging down the DMCs I bought in Jan 2015 (@ ₱14.68) and Feb 2017 (@₱13.06).

After selling some ALCO @₱1.48, wondering if I had made a mistake not getting back in @₱1.38 (as it’s now at ₱1.42).

In terms of wondering about mistakes, maybe I should have sold some Shell at its peak of around ₱80.00 now that its around 9% lower than that. My thinking was that its expected that Shell will have an attractive dividend policy. Something that I haven’t read any updates on, just yet, since the IPO.

Also looking into getting some Wilcon IPO and CPG @ ₱0.50.

Sold ALCO, bought EMP

Sold some of my holdings in Arthaland @₱1.48 that I bought back in Feb 13, 2017 for ₱1.32 which gives a net gain of around 10.8%. I think Arthaland is a good company to hold for the long haul, however I wanted to lock-in some gains and possibly use the cash to buy ALCO again in case the stock falls back to the ₱1.30+ range (it closed at ₱1.41).

I bought some EMP @ ₱6.46. It ex-divs on March 29, 2017 for ₱0.1865/share (around 2.8%). I now think it’s a bit of a long time and the share price may still go down until ex-div. EMP is one of my not too rational stocks that I hold because of what the company stands for and what it may become in the future… and I’ve been itching to buy this stock. I now remember one of those investment warnings on stopping yourself from ever falling in love with a stock, no matter how sexy it is. Oh well.

Around 20% of my portfolio is held in what I call kinda-moonshot stocks (wherein I can’t really tell when the price will pick up, if ever). Another 25% are in preferred shares or shares that give at least 5% cash div a year, with the rest of my holdings in value or high-dividend shares.

AEV, AP, TEL and the SMC preferred shares all ex-div on March 16, so last day to be in on their cash dividend tomorrow.

Bought PNB @ ₱57.20

Bought some PNB today, even though the dividend policy is a less than stellar around 1.7% p.a. (IF the same dividend from last year applies to this year). However, P/E is around 10.4x (2017 forecasted) @ ₱57.20/share, which is lower than RCB (@11.3x), BDO (@17.7) MBT (@13.4) and BPI (@16.9). Price/Book is even better at 0.6. Profits have also been steadily heading back up in the last few years.

To paraphrase Philip Fisher, it’s easier to know what will happen to a stock’s price, than when exactly it will happen. I’m hoping that the investing public sees the value of this stock sooner than later.

As I said in previous posts, I wanted to get some CPG @ ₱0.50, however it went up to ₱0.52 today (up 4%) so I was unable to, ditto for getting some more EMP.

SMC’s preferred shares are going to ex-date on March 16, so looking into getting some of that if prices don’t go up too high tomorrow and on Wednesday.

GLO Cash Dividends, EMP

Received some Globe Telecom cash dividends a few days ago (March 9, 2017). At ₱22.75 per share divided by last Friday’s closing price of ₱1910.00, the dividend gives a gross annual cash dividend of around 4.7% (note that this is a fourth, as Globe typically gives out cash dividends quarterly).

Emperador’s recent price dive seems excessive if its just because of getting taken out of the index. I’m looking into getting some before the March 29, 2017 ex-dividend date. At a cash div rate of ₱0.1865 per share divided by last Friday’s (March 10, 2017) closing price of ₱6.35 would give a gross annual cash dividend of around 2.9%. I somehow don’t expect Emperador to change its dividend policy within the year, unless there was some extraordinary gain somewhere.

I’ll also start posting some quotes I like which are related to investing in one way or another.

“In a world of change, the learners shall inherit the earth, while the learned shall find themselves perfectly suited for a world that no longer exists.” – Eric Hoffer

Bought MWIDE @ ₱14.88

Added to my Megawide holdings by buying some shares today at ₱14.88. At that price, PE is around 30x and with no dividend yield, the biggest reason I’m buying this stock is because of its industry’s prospects in the mid-term. The last time I bought MWIDE was November 14, 2016 @₱14.78.

I’m looking forward to the Eagle Cement IPO in May. CPG is also starting to look good at its current price of ₱0.50.