October 8, 2017

“One man’s ceiling is another man’s floor.” – Paul Simon

One of the reasons I started this blog is to put down my thoughts when I buy or sell shares. I want to be able to have a bit of objectivity in analyzing the process I go through in buying or selling shares. I want to have a strategy that I can support with a process that is compatible to my personality type.

Market moves (or non-movement) typically depends on its reaction to news of the organization’s income, macro, industry or related industry, etc. As the PSEi is in all-time-high territory, it makes me want to head for the exits and I can’t be able to blame myself if I did. However, how do I know if it’s at the high? Would I still buy some shares at this price point? I will always remember selling URC at ₱13? or was it ₱10.30? (from around ₱5), before it went up (albeit) many years afterwards to around ₱200 (now down to around ₱150). More recently, I bought DD @ ₱4.34 sold it a week after at ₱5.72. I bought it again at ₱8.07 then sold it at ₱10.30. That stock is now around ₱40.

I definitely want to sell some to lock in some gains, but I’m impeded by CGT. My thinking moving forward is to put in more cash into my stock trading account and try to put the majority into preferred shares, and if the market falls, then I sell the preferred shares (cognizant of the buy-sell spread) and buy shares that I deem undervalued. I could also sell some losers (I think I currently have around 6 out of 68+ shares that I hold that are losing more than 5% of their value) that I have and use it against my CGT gains.

I have always cost-averaged to remove the temptation of wanting to be completely right. This goes completely against what Charlie Munger thinks, but then again, I wouldn’t want to compare myself to one of the greatest investors the world has seen… and I’ll continue to hedge against my bets.

Advertisements

Bought FDC @ ₱7.79

Bought more FDC yesterday @ ₱7.79. Funny that due to the capital gains taxes of the country where I reside, I’m really held back from selling any shares. I’m quite tempted to sell some as I think I can time some shares. Yes, I can fall into that trap of ‘timing’ that most ‘investors’ think they can do, but most cannot… though then again my track record has shown I’ve been successful with it a majority of the time. Which reminds me of, ‘Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?‘ and Buffett telling that story about trading and waiting for the right pitch… and if you keep on trading you’ll be making the broker richer and you poorer.

I want to sell as the cash holdings I now have are pretty low, and I want to be ready to buy when prices go back down. Admittedly though, I made a wrong call by selling some shares on both SMPH and SCC. I still hold some shares in both though.

 

Bought GMA7@₱6.05

Bought some GMA7@₱6.05 today (it closed 2 centavos lower at ₱6.03). Hoping that they would continue on:

  • giving good cash dividends and
  • their streak of increasing earnings/share.

Its current P/E is around 10.4 (around its 5 year low of 10.29), P/B of 2.4, YTD net income is up 70+% but its Q/Q (last year) net income is down -48%.

I’m thinking SHLPH should declare cash dividends in the next few months and if only it didn’t already have a good portion of my portfolio, I’d buy some more.

Cash Dividends in September 2017

Received the following cash dividends in September:

  • GLO: ₱22.75/share, around 1.1%, quarterly (4.4% p.a.)
  • PF: ₱1.50/share, around 0.48%, quarterly (1.9% p.a.)
  • TEL:  ₱48.00/share, around 2.8%, semi-annually (4.4% p.a.)
  • SCC:  ₱5.00/share, around 2.9%, semi-annually (5.8% p.a.)*
  • SHNG:  ₱0.07/share, around 2.2%, semi-annually (5.1% p.a.)
  • SGI: ₱0.07/share, around 4.89%, annually
  • MPI: ₱0.0345/share, around 0.5%, semi-annually (1.49% p.a.)

All above % estimates are against price at close of October 4, and are the gross value/share, not taking into account the 10% withholding tax for Filipino citizens.

Per my previous post, received a net of around 0.297% of my principal from cash dividends in September (which if the equivalent would occur each month of the year, would equal to around 3.56% p.a.).

* based on Aug 18, 2017 closing price, which was before the 300% stock dividend

Bought LR@₱4.50, EDC@₱5.86, and AEV@₱74.05

Bought LR on Sep 14, EDC on Sep 29, and AEV on Oct 2.

Buying EDC at this time is a gamble, but it’s a gamble I’m willing to take as I don’t think the price should be this low. The price has gone down a few percentages points since I bought it, and I might buy it again.

Received a net of around 0.297% of my principal from cash dividends in September (equal to around 3.56% p.a.). I’ll write about the received cash dividends in an upcoming post.

Cash Dividends in July 2017

Received the following cash dividends in July:

  • SPC: ₱0.40/share, around 8.8%, annually*
  • CEB: ₱2.75/share, around 2.4%, annually
  • SMC2F: ₱1.27635/share, around 1.57%, quarterly
  • SMC2C: ₱1.50/share, around 1.86%, quarterly
  • HLCM: ₱0.98/share, around 7.9%, annually**
  • DDPR: ₱1.61945/share, around 1.54%, quarterly
  • MEG: ₱0.05410389/share, around 1%, annually
  • ROCK: ₱0.0594/share, around 3.3%, annually
  • SMC: ₱0.35/share, around 1/3 of 1%, quarterly

All above % estimates are against price on Sep 12, and are the gross value/share, not taking into account the 10% withholding tax for Filipino citizens.

Cash dividends in July 2017 are higher than my typical month and it made up 0.59% of my whole principal. Meaning if I always had as much cash dividends in a month, my principal would be getting around 7% p.a. gross. This is due to the quarterly SMC and DD preferred shares paying during the month, plus the annual cash div payable of higher yield shares, SPC, HLCM and ROCK (I consider anything above 3% as fairly high yield).

*This was supposed to have been paid on June 30, but it arrived to me in July, hence I’m accounting it in July.

**Noted this share fell in value in the past few weeks which has increased the cash dividend yield.

Recent Sell transactions

Recently sold the following shares:

  • SSI @ ₱4.71 and ₱4.70 on Aug 30, 2017
  • SMPH @ ₱33.70 on Aug 31, 2017

I typically sell for just two reasons, one is to risk manage, the other is that the stock is just plain overpriced and I believe I can eventually pick up the stock at a lower price.

My recent sell of SCC was for reason 1, while WLCON @ ₱8.58, SECB @ ₱260.40, SSI @ ₱4.70 and ₱4.71 and SMPH @ ₱33.70 was for reason 2.

Since I sold WLCON, it has gone up to the ₱9.50 range (I’m still holding some shares) and I’m just wondering how much that stock can still rise.

SMPH is still around the same range as when I sold it. I simply don’t think that the multiples of SMPH justify its price (around 37 P/E), specially with a net income growth rate of around 15% Q/Q. As with WLCON, I’m still holding some SMPH.

SCC has gone up, notwithstanding the ₱5/share that I missed on. I am also still holding some SCC.

SSI and SECB have gone down. I’ve sold all my SSI and am still holding some SECB which I intend to buy again.

Bought BLFI @ ₱3.96, RFM @ ₱4.31

Bought some BLFI @ ₱3.96 last Friday (Aug 18) and RFM @ ₱4.31 earlier today.

Also received cash dividends from JGS for a total of ₱0.28/share last Aug 11 and CNPF yesterday for total of ₱0.18/share.

I should have bought LR when I had the chance. Looking into SPC and possibly FGEN.

It would be a good time to send some money to the Philippines now as the exchange rates are pretty good for OFW’s. It would also be a good time as the PSEi typically consolidates or is in negative territory around this time of year, meaning the next few months may be a good time to buy.