Bought more FDC yesterday @ ₱7.79. Funny that due to the capital gains taxes of the country where I reside, I’m really held back from selling any shares. I’m quite tempted to sell some as I think I can time some shares. Yes, I can fall into that trap of ‘timing’ that most ‘investors’ think they can do, but most cannot… though then again my track record has shown I’ve been successful with it a majority of the time. Which reminds me of, ‘Where Are the Customers’ Yachts?‘ and Buffett telling that story about trading and waiting for the right pitch… and if you keep on trading you’ll be making the broker richer and you poorer.
I want to sell as the cash holdings I now have are pretty low, and I want to be ready to buy when prices go back down. Admittedly though, I made a wrong call by selling some shares on both SMPH and SCC. I still hold some shares in both though.
Bought some GMA7@₱6.05 today (it closed 2 centavos lower at ₱6.03). Hoping that they would continue on:
- giving good cash dividends and
- their streak of increasing earnings/share.
Its current P/E is around 10.4 (around its 5 year low of 10.29), P/B of 2.4, YTD net income is up 70+% but its Q/Q (last year) net income is down -48%.
I’m thinking SHLPH should declare cash dividends in the next few months and if only it didn’t already have a good portion of my portfolio, I’d buy some more.
Bought LR on Sep 14, EDC on Sep 29, and AEV on Oct 2.
Buying EDC at this time is a gamble, but it’s a gamble I’m willing to take as I don’t think the price should be this low. The price has gone down a few percentages points since I bought it, and I might buy it again.
Received a net of around 0.297% of my principal from cash dividends in September (equal to around 3.56% p.a.). I’ll write about the received cash dividends in an upcoming post.
Bought SHNG @ ₱3.25 on Aug 31, FGEN @ ₱16.86 on Sep 4 and AC @ ₱917.50 today.
Bought some BLFI @ ₱3.96 last Friday (Aug 18) and RFM @ ₱4.31 earlier today.
Also received cash dividends from JGS for a total of ₱0.28/share last Aug 11 and CNPF yesterday for total of ₱0.18/share.
I should have bought LR when I had the chance. Looking into SPC and possibly FGEN.
It would be a good time to send some money to the Philippines now as the exchange rates are pretty good for OFW’s. It would also be a good time as the PSEi typically consolidates or is in negative territory around this time of year, meaning the next few months may be a good time to buy.
Sold some of my holdings in SCC @ ₱175.20 and WLCON @ ₱8.58 yesterday. I also sold some SECB @ ₱260.40 earlier today. The SECB I sold included what I mistakenly bought for ₱252.20 and some shares I bought last year.
I really like SCC for their earnings and the consistent cash dividends, however the price seemed a bit high. I’ll try to buy it again if the price lowers a bit. WLCON was a bit high, and it went even higher after I sold, but selling at around 68% above IPO is good enough for me.
Bought BLFI @ ₱3.96 which I intend to accumulate as long as the price stays low enough. My only concerns for this stock is the low trading volumes and its P/E of around 15 isn’t cheap. Its div yield of around 5% (at its current price) is great though. It typically ex-divs around the 1st week of March, payable at the end of March.
Still looking at LR, which maybe I should have bought earlier today before the price spiked to ₱4.32. Also looking into FGEN at ₱17.10 (52 wk low) which looks like a good price to buy it. PIP @ ₱2.90 and PBB @ ₱13.20 also look like good buys.
I should really start putting down the steps I use in deciding whether or not to buy and sell a stock and then continually improve it. Maybe I should put it in a flowchart. Typical steps I use are:
- Is it relatively cheap in terms of its current P/E? B/V?
- Does it give good cash dividends and its dividend history?
- Earnings trends
- How is the management team and reputation?
- Price trends for the past week, month, 3 months, year, 2 years and 5 years.
I sold some MEG today as I want to risk manage a bit. I was trying to sell some SECB but mistakenly bought as I was in a rush before my train was going into a tunnel and was afraid I might lose cell signal. Crap.
I think SECB is a bit high at that price and wanted to sell so I could buy some other shares on my watchlist I posted on previously (e.g. BLFI @ ₱3.94, LR, RFM, FLI… or even SHNG or ABA). At its closing price of ₱252.00, P/E is 22.42, with a P/B of 1.84 (courtesy of MS Money). That’s a bit too close to BDO (20.37 and 1.97) and BPI’s (17.89 and 2.43) valuations… I mean why not just buy the better valuations of MBT or CHIB right? Hence why I wanted to sell some. I’m just going to cross my fingers for now and hope it goes up a bit for me to sell… or it do what my MWIDE did when I also made the mistake of buying instead of selling.
The past few days have been pretty bad on my portfolio and I think I’m just up by around 22.90% on my principal with an XIRR of 13.95%… (if my calculations are correct) so maybe I’m not doing as bad as I thought.
So I bought ALCO at ₱1.01 yesterday… just before it crashed by almost 7% today. Sucks I know.
I haven’t done a recent XIRR but I’m around just 24% up from my capital/principal.
It’s been a bloodbath with recent IPOs, from SHLPH at around -4%, EAGLE at -0.8%, CLC at almost -8%, and CLI at around -3.4%. The only saving grace amongst IPOs is WLCON that’s up by around 63% (lower than its peak, but quite a gain nonetheless).
I’ve been unable to buy DDPR nor SMC2F since they’re both a bit high now.
I’m currently looking at FGEN (17.40), GTCAP (1168), HLCM (12.90), HOUSE (5.43), JGS (69.45), LR (4.19) and RFM (4.40).
Bought some PIP for ₱3.16 on Aug 3 as the price is pretty low compared to its revenue. I also tried buying some RFM but no one matched at the price I bid… same with DDPR. I’ll just wait then. To quote W. Buffet, “What’s nice about investing is you don’t have to swing at pitches… No umpire is going to call you out. You can wait for the pitch you want.”
I’m also looking at LR as it has gone down considerably (approx 14%) since I last bought it a week or two ago.
I’m a bit surprised that the price of MEG didn’t go down even though the US Dems are proposing a bill on taxing US organizations that outsource. Maybe investors don’t see it affecting the Philippine economy.
I also tried selling most of my EDC at near its peak on Friday (Aug 4) but no one bit.
In the past week I was able to obtain a few shares of the upcoming CLC IPO (@ ₱10.68), which in hindsight and totally basing on the P/E, looks quite expensive. Nevertheless, it’s just a few shares and maybe it will do a DD which I once held at around ₱4 before selling at around ₱5.
I also bought some FDC @ ₱7.60, COSCO @ ₱7.79, and HOUSE @ ₱5.92. I think FDC is undervalued given how much EW has increased its profits (and will likely continue to do so… it also isn’t a ‘treasury’ bank). COSCO is a retail play which hasn’t budged much despite of PGOLD’s movement. HOUSE is a cash dividend play.
I’ve gained around 2.2% cash on my principal in the 7 months of this year (note not p.a.) as a number of companies I hold are cash dividend plays. But then again, more companies seem to give out cash dividends in the first half than the second half of the year.
I’m at a wait and see on HLCM since its profits dropped significantly and there is a lot of competition in the cement business within the next 3-5 years.
I’m still looking at getting more PIP, RFM and probably SMC2F (which has an optional redemption date of around Sep 2022).