October 8, 2017

“One man’s ceiling is another man’s floor.” – Paul Simon

One of the reasons I started this blog is to put down my thoughts when I buy or sell shares. I want to be able to have a bit of objectivity in analyzing the process I go through in buying or selling shares. I want to have a strategy that I can support with a process that is compatible to my personality type.

Market moves (or non-movement) typically depends on its reaction to news of the organization’s income, macro, industry or related industry, etc. As the PSEi is in all-time-high territory, it makes me want to head for the exits and I can’t be able to blame myself if I did. However, how do I know if it’s at the high? Would I still buy some shares at this price point? I will always remember selling URC at ₱13? or was it ₱10.30? (from around ₱5), before it went up (albeit) many years afterwards to around ₱200 (now down to around ₱150). More recently, I bought DD @ ₱4.34 sold it a week after at ₱5.72. I bought it again at ₱8.07 then sold it at ₱10.30. That stock is now around ₱40.

I definitely want to sell some to lock in some gains, but I’m impeded by CGT. My thinking moving forward is to put in more cash into my stock trading account and try to put the majority into preferred shares, and if the market falls, then I sell the preferred shares (cognizant of the buy-sell spread) and buy shares that I deem undervalued. I could also sell some losers (I think I currently have around 6 out of 68+ shares that I hold that are losing more than 5% of their value) that I have and use it against my CGT gains.

I have always cost-averaged to remove the temptation of wanting to be completely right. This goes completely against what Charlie Munger thinks, but then again, I wouldn’t want to compare myself to one of the greatest investors the world has seen… and I’ll continue to hedge against my bets.


Recent Sell transactions

Recently sold the following shares:

  • SSI @ ₱4.71 and ₱4.70 on Aug 30, 2017
  • SMPH @ ₱33.70 on Aug 31, 2017

I typically sell for just two reasons, one is to risk manage, the other is that the stock is just plain overpriced and I believe I can eventually pick up the stock at a lower price.

My recent sell of SCC was for reason 1, while WLCON @ ₱8.58, SECB @ ₱260.40, SSI @ ₱4.70 and ₱4.71 and SMPH @ ₱33.70 was for reason 2.

Since I sold WLCON, it has gone up to the ₱9.50 range (I’m still holding some shares) and I’m just wondering how much that stock can still rise.

SMPH is still around the same range as when I sold it. I simply don’t think that the multiples of SMPH justify its price (around 37 P/E), specially with a net income growth rate of around 15% Q/Q. As with WLCON, I’m still holding some SMPH.

SCC has gone up, notwithstanding the ₱5/share that I missed on. I am also still holding some SCC.

SSI and SECB have gone down. I’ve sold all my SSI and am still holding some SECB which I intend to buy again.

Sold MEG @ ₱4.80, Mistakenly bought SECB @ ₱252.20

I sold some MEG today as I want to risk manage a bit. I was trying to sell some SECB but mistakenly bought as I was in a rush before my train was going into a tunnel and was afraid I might lose cell signal. Crap.

I think SECB is a bit high at that price and wanted to sell so I could buy some other shares on my watchlist I posted on previously (e.g. BLFI @ ₱3.94, LR, RFM, FLI… or even SHNG or ABA). At its closing price of ₱252.00, P/E is 22.42, with a P/B of 1.84 (courtesy of MS Money). That’s a bit too close to BDO (20.37 and 1.97) and BPI’s (17.89 and 2.43) valuations… I mean why not just buy the better valuations of MBT or CHIB right? Hence why I wanted to sell some. I’m just going to cross my fingers for now and hope it goes up a bit for me to sell… or it do what my MWIDE did when I also made the mistake of buying instead of selling.

The past few days have been pretty bad on my portfolio and I think I’m just up by around 22.90% on my principal with an XIRR of 13.95%… (if my calculations are correct) so maybe I’m not doing as bad as I thought.