Recently sold the following shares:
- SSI @ ₱4.71 and ₱4.70 on Aug 30, 2017
- SMPH @ ₱33.70 on Aug 31, 2017
I typically sell for just two reasons, one is to risk manage, the other is that the stock is just plain overpriced and I believe I can eventually pick up the stock at a lower price.
My recent sell of SCC was for reason 1, while WLCON @ ₱8.58, SECB @ ₱260.40, SSI @ ₱4.70 and ₱4.71 and SMPH @ ₱33.70 was for reason 2.
Since I sold WLCON, it has gone up to the ₱9.50 range (I’m still holding some shares) and I’m just wondering how much that stock can still rise.
SMPH is still around the same range as when I sold it. I simply don’t think that the multiples of SMPH justify its price (around 37 P/E), specially with a net income growth rate of around 15% Q/Q. As with WLCON, I’m still holding some SMPH.
SCC has gone up, notwithstanding the ₱5/share that I missed on. I am also still holding some SCC.
SSI and SECB have gone down. I’ve sold all my SSI and am still holding some SECB which I intend to buy again.
Sold some of my holdings in SCC @ ₱175.20 and WLCON @ ₱8.58 yesterday. I also sold some SECB @ ₱260.40 earlier today. The SECB I sold included what I mistakenly bought for ₱252.20 and some shares I bought last year.
I really like SCC for their earnings and the consistent cash dividends, however the price seemed a bit high. I’ll try to buy it again if the price lowers a bit. WLCON was a bit high, and it went even higher after I sold, but selling at around 68% above IPO is good enough for me.
Bought BLFI @ ₱3.96 which I intend to accumulate as long as the price stays low enough. My only concerns for this stock is the low trading volumes and its P/E of around 15 isn’t cheap. Its div yield of around 5% (at its current price) is great though. It typically ex-divs around the 1st week of March, payable at the end of March.
Still looking at LR, which maybe I should have bought earlier today before the price spiked to ₱4.32. Also looking into FGEN at ₱17.10 (52 wk low) which looks like a good price to buy it. PIP @ ₱2.90 and PBB @ ₱13.20 also look like good buys.
I should really start putting down the steps I use in deciding whether or not to buy and sell a stock and then continually improve it. Maybe I should put it in a flowchart. Typical steps I use are:
- Is it relatively cheap in terms of its current P/E? B/V?
- Does it give good cash dividends and its dividend history?
- Earnings trends
- How is the management team and reputation?
- Price trends for the past week, month, 3 months, year, 2 years and 5 years.
So I bought ALCO at ₱1.01 yesterday… just before it crashed by almost 7% today. Sucks I know.
I haven’t done a recent XIRR but I’m around just 24% up from my capital/principal.
It’s been a bloodbath with recent IPOs, from SHLPH at around -4%, EAGLE at -0.8%, CLC at almost -8%, and CLI at around -3.4%. The only saving grace amongst IPOs is WLCON that’s up by around 63% (lower than its peak, but quite a gain nonetheless).
I’ve been unable to buy DDPR nor SMC2F since they’re both a bit high now.
I’m currently looking at FGEN (17.40), GTCAP (1168), HLCM (12.90), HOUSE (5.43), JGS (69.45), LR (4.19) and RFM (4.40).
I apparently haven’t written in more than two months.
The title is on ‘buys’ since the country I currently reside in (I live outside the Philippines) makes us report global income, hence I would need to report all the cash divs minus the tax that have been withheld in the Philippines (as it has a tax treaty with the country where I live). It also inhibits (whether in a good way or bad) all my sell transactions. I need to really think before pulling the trigger on a ‘sell’ as I would get hit with a capital gains tax.
As per my last post, I was thinking of buying FGEN and IMI. I bought both, buying FGEN @ ₱21.00 and IMI @ ₱7.90 a few days later. Since then, and compared to today’s price, FGEN is down by around 11.8%, while IMI is up by a whopping 71.4%.
I have also bought CHIB rights (as per previous posts), and the IPO’s of both EAGLE (up by around 7.8%) and CLI (up by around 9.9%).
I have bought AP twice as I’m steadily accumulating the stock, @₱40.05 and @₱39.75. The stock closed today @₱38.65 so I’m a few percentage points down.
I completely missed the bus on ROX. I was trying to get a hold of it in the ₱2.85 range in late April but wasn’t able to acquire it and it’s now around ₱5.00.
Today, I also bought some more CHIB @₱36.85 (as it just got a ratings upgrade from Moody’s) and MPI @₱6.27 (as I think it got a good deal for the extra stake in Meralco and Global Power).
Been checking out PHN the past few days, but it just went up by 4.1% today which makes me wonder if I should still watch it at that price. HLCM’s drop also seems a bit too much. BLFI, COSCO, PIP and RFM are also on my current watchlist.
I’m glad I wasn’t able to sell WLCON, as I was planning to sell in the mid ₱5’s (for around a 10% gain), and it’s now at ₱7.95 (or around 56% up from IPO).
SHLPH share price has slowly been going down from a peak of ₱80.00 to today’s close of ₱72.45. Was hoping of selling some of my holdings at around the ₱74++ mark, the only thing that’s stopping me is that the company intends to give out 75% of its earnings as cash dividends. To make a not-so-informed analysis of that, from the ₱4.68/share (2016 earnings) would give around a 4.8% div yield at today’s price. A rate that only a handful of other shares can top.
HLCM, another stock with good div yield has also been going down, partially (and supposedly) because of the anticipated listing of Eagle Cement.
Current stocks on my watchlist to buy (aside from HLCM @₱15.02) are as follows:
- AP (₱41.30)
- ELI (₱0.66)
- FLI (₱1.63)
- GTCAP (₱1134)
- MEG (₱3.44)
- ROX (₱2.75)
Still smarting from my mistakenly buying more MWIDE @ ₱17.72, extra shares of which I’ll probably sell if it goes anywhere near today’s high of ₱18.42.
I’m seeing a couple of outlets expecting WLCON to go up to ₱6.00 pretty soon. I’ll likely get out before that to fund other underappreciated stocks as the market has been in this range of around 7140 to 7370 since it suddenly jumped during the first trading week of the year.
Sold half of my LTG shares for ₱14.90 back in Mar 22 that in hindsight might not have been the best thing to do (it closed at ₱16.08 today), especially since my net gain was just slightly over 3% for holding a stock for more than three months. This is below my IRR of greater than 11%. I guess I just thought that it’s better to gain rather than see and wait for a stock in case it goes below purchase price. I did hold on to my other half of shares which is currently showing a paper gain of around over 19%.
As I said in previous posts on what I was planning to purchase, in the past week I bought some more ALCO @ ₱1.38, CPG @ ₱0.495, MPI @ ₱6.12 and SGI @ ₱1.39.
Looking at HLCM the past few days, but it went up 3.2% today, so I might hold off… or maybe buy at the higher price. May sell some GLO or MWIDE as I’d need to get ready for the stock rights of CHIB (to be priced on Apr 6, offered from Apr 24 to May 5, with a tentative listing date of May 10).
Excited about the WLCON listing tomorrow. Got a very limited amount of shares. Read somewhere it was 3x oversubscribed. At the offer price though, the price was quite dear. Let’s see how the market thinks about it tomorrow.
PHN ex-divs tomorrow, payment is supposed to be on Apr 21. Also received my PX cash div of ₱0.04 / share and BEL’s cash div of ₱0.095 / share recently (PX’s cash div yield is so low I’m not going to even try to compute it, BEL’s is around 2.3%).