March 13, 2021

Sooo I apparently haven’t written here for almost 2 years now. The whole COVID-19 pandemic gave such a great opportunity to invest in stock markets if you were able to get in at the right time. The past year has both been fast and slow.

I’m currently trying to look for Double Dragon Preferred shares’ prospectus to no avail. Only reason why I’m looking for it is to find out the optional redemption date. The closest information I have is “2023 – Mandatory Call Date of DDPR(7th year Optional Redemption)” per the Amazing Chart blog that does not seem to be getting updated for a few years now.

Since my last post I’ve just retained and grown my Philippine portfolio and have continued to dabble in US shares.

Last year was the first time that I’ve seen my Philippine portfolio go into negatives (paper losses). This is probably since I started investing in Philippine shares in 1995. Since the almost -20% last year, my portfolio is back in the positives with around a 10% gain against principal.

Hello again world, selling INGPHCE

Didn’t realize that the last post I had seemed to have been back in January. How time flies when you’re having fun. I’m still happily earning from cash dividends and just buying and selling here and there. I’m interested in PRF3B which is currently being offered now by BDO, BPI, and I think China Bank.

I’m thinking of selling the only UITF/MF, that I’ve lost money in, which is the Odyssey Philippine High Conviction Equity Fund that I’ve held since February 2012 (bought at ₱193.73) and July 2012 (bought at ₱200.44). All the other UITFs and MFs I’ve held since have had gains (albeit tiny ones for a few). At the current price of ₱138.94, I’ve lost 29.5% in those holdings that I’ve held for around 7 years.

I’ve also been dabbling in ETF’s sold in the NYSE, which I’ll probably talk about in another post. I’ve also bought a bit of Philippines MSCI ETF iShares or EPHE as the management fee is 0.59% as compared to FMETF’s possibly around 1.00% (as their prospectus just says less than 2.00%, other sources say 0.50% plus expenses (that are unknown)). Bloomberg lists FMETF’s expense ratio at 0.49% with a Management fee of 0.50%?. A Deutsche Bank Market Research report from 2017 lists it’s TER at 2%. Anyway, I could use EPHE as a hedge as it’s in USD.

Technically beat the market in 2018

As per my last post, I hadn’t done an XIRR for 2018… I just did and found out that I technically beat the market. Technically because I was -7.51% while the market was around -12.76% for 2018. It isn’t anyone’s goal to get a negative return in any year, but I’ll take consolation in getting 5% better than the market.

Before last year, where I wasn’t able to beat the market (I was up around 14.41% while the market was up… 23%?) I doubt I’ve had many years that I’ve been unable to beat the market in the almost quarter of a century that I’ve been trading in the PSE. They say ignorance is bliss and I was ignorant enough to think it was normal to beat the market until around a decade ago (I did pull out most of my holdings in 2007, but unfortunately did not get back in 2009, mostly just got back in 2011, 2012 and then a big push in 2016). I was thinking that maybe it was because the PSE is quite small and that was why I had such a good run. Another reason for this blog and why I post my holdings, buys and sells is I want to know if my view, or possible lack of self-awareness (of typically beating the market) is just my own hubris and not based on fact, in the same vein that if you survey a room of people, most people would think they are above average drivers when that cannot be the case.

I haven’t bought in January 2019, except for VLL at ₱5.64 on the 7th.

Happy New Year!

I hope everyone has a prosperous New Year ahead.

I’ve always had cash dividend shares in my portfolio, as I also use preferred shares as kind of how one would use bonds to diversify out of equities (bonds not being easily accessible to the typical Philippine stock market player).

My cash dividends per annum as % of principal from 2013 are as follows:

• 2013: 4.71%
• 2014: 4.03%
• 2015: 3.62%
• 2016: 2.14%
• 2017: 3.20%
• 2018: 3.61%

The percentage has been steadily going back up as it crashed when I infused a significant amount of cash in late 2016.

The goal has always been to create enough regular cash dividends / trading gains for me to safely gain financial independence and retire as early as possible (FIRE).

My portfolio has been badly affected the past year. Gain from principal is a measly 9.8% up. I haven’t XIRR’d just yet, so I don’t have an idea if I’ve beaten the market this year or not. Principal has grown by around 21% from the start of 2018, as I tried to cost average as the market was heading down. Over the year the PSEi declined around 12.5% from 2017’s close of 8,535.09 to 2018’s close at 7,466.02. My straight line percentage gain against principal was standing at 25.36% up in January 2018, crashing down to just 6.35% up in October 2018, then closing the year at around 9.8% up.

Cheers everyone.

Bought and sold in May 2018

So I apparently haven’t posted since mid-May (around 2 1/2 months ago).

Bought the following shares in May 2018:

• 3: DD @ ₱31.30
• 10: FMETF @ ₱117.00
• 11: JFC @ ₱285.60
• 17: FGENG @ ₱109.00
• 18: DMC @ ₱10.34
• 18: MWIDE @ ₱20.90
• 21: SPC @ ₱5.45
• 21: HLCM @ ₱8.90
• 30: CLC @ ₱7.35
• 31: MPI @ ₱4.74

Sold the following shares in May 2018:

• 11: MPI @ ₱5.42
• 31: MEG @ ₱4.69

The market has finally been recovering the past few weeks. It was a good thing that I had some cash dividends coming in that enabled me to buy some shares while the market was low. Admittedly, I had to start selling some shares to buy other shares, e.g. I sold MEG @ ₱4.69 on the 31st as I expected MPI to go to a higher price than MEG (I thought of MEG @ ₱4.69 being undervalued, but I thought of MPI as even more undervalued).

Of the shares I bought in May, the only ones in the green are DMC, MPI and SPC (taking into account the ₱0.40 cash dividend that had an ex-div on Jun 6 and paid out on Jun 27).

The ghost month is coming on August 11 and it may be a good time to get ready to buy PSEi related shares. Twitter user @PH7641 tweeted a great $PSEi heat map back on July 31 that may help make one believe in the dreaded ghost month. I personally think that it mostly hits my FMETF as I intentionally try to include non-PSEi stocks. Maybe I could sell some second-liners to buy PSEi related shares if they tank again.

I completely missed the bus on ION as I was trying to learn a bit about technical analysis. I should have just bought some (20% ago) instead of hesitating. I didn’t have the cash to buy the recent increase in AEV even if it was in my buy list the past few weeks.

Current stocks I’m thinking of buying (and Friday’s closing price) are: ABS (24.40), BLFI (2.75), BLOOM (10.08), PMPC (6.83), PNB (45.50) and ROX (3.21). I almost bought SSI after the burger chain announcement… but it went up too fast. If AEV levels off or lowers a bit, I might also buy some.

Cash dividends in Apr 2018

Received the following cash dividends in April:

• SMC2F: ₱1.27635/share, around 1.63%, quarterly (6.54% p.a.)
• SMC2C: ₱1.50/share, around  1.87%, quarterly (7.50% p.a.)
• PHN: ₱0.40/share, around 5.01% p.a.
• DMC: ₱0.48/share, around 4.48% p.a.
• NIKL: ₱0.12/share, around 2.35% p.a.
• LTG: ₱0.20/share, around 0.92% p.a.
• AEV: ₱1.28/share, around 2.03% p.a.
• AP: ₱1.39/share, around 3.56% p.a
• GTCAP: ₱3.00/share, around 0.28% p.a.
• SHNG: ₱0.1255/share, around 3.87%, semi-annually, (6.03% p.a.)
• DDPR: ₱1.61945/share, around 1.60%, quarterly, (6.42% p.a.)
• PCOR: ₱0.15/share, around 1.56% p.a.
• SHLPH: ₱5.14/share, around 9.55% p.a.
• CLI: ₱0.15/share, around 3.04% p.a.
• MPI: ₱0.076/share, around 1.40%, semi-annually, (2.04% p.a.)
• SECB: ₱1.50/share, around 0.74%, semi-annually, (1.49% p.a.)
• TEL: ₱28.00/share, around 2.00%, semi-annually, (?? p.a.)*

All above % estimates are against price at close of May 11, and are the gross value/share, not taking into account the 10% withholding tax for Filipino citizens. This might inflate the % cash divs due to the recent market downturn.

*For semi-annual payouts, I typically add the previous cash dividend to this last one and just divide by the current price, however I’m not confident that TEL will be giving out as much as what they paid out back in Sep 2017.

Received a net (after 10% withholding tax) of around 0.88% of my principal from cash dividends in March (which if the equivalent would occur each month of the year, would equal to around 10.61% p.a…. and would also mean that most of the cash dividends I receive occur in April as I’m sure I don’t reach half of that percentage in a year).

Bought and sold in April 2018

Bought the following shares in April 2018:

• 10: LR @ ₱4.99
• 16: MPI @ ₱5.00
• 16: PIP @ ₱2.50
• 17: CLI @ ₱4.54
• 19: AGI @ ₱12.98
• 19: MEG @ ₱4.31
• 19: SMPH @ ₱32.30
• 20: FLI @ ₱1.70

Sold the following shares in April 2018:

• 13: SMC2C @ ₱79.10
• 24: SMC2C @ ₱79.00

I had small, almost negligible, losses for both SMC2C transactions. Overall in the years that I’ve held them, there has been a net gain from quarterly cash dividends. As I mentioned previously, I will park cash in preferred shares, and will sell when the market goes down enough… the recent downturn of over 10% allowed me to pull the trigger. Aside from the fact that I will have to sell my SMC2C in the coming year as the optional redemption date of September 2019 is starting to loom and should put downward pressure on the price.

Cash Dividends in Mar 2018

I bought shares in just two more orgs in March:

• 20: SCC @ ₱29.95
• 22: AC @ ₱931.00

I can’t really call the ₱75.00 MBT SRO a typical buy so I won’t call it that. I typically exercise all SROs as it doesn’t make sense not to.

I don’t hold any orgs that paid out cash dividends for the month of February 2018.

Received the following cash dividends in March:

• FB (PF): ₱0.20/share, around 0.3%, quarterly (1.23% p.a.)*
• GLO: ₱22.75/share, around  1.47%, quarterly (5.90% p.a.)
• ALCPB: ₱1.76145/share, around 1.69%, quarterly (6.77% p.a.)
• HOUSE: ₱0.25/share, around 3.67%, semi-annually (4.41% p.a.)
• RFM: ₱0.08571/share, around 1.77%, semi-annually,  (2.95% p.a.)
• MBT: ₱1.00/share, around 1.17% p.a.
• IMI: ₱0.235/share, around 1.52% p.a.
• SCC: ₱1.25/share, around 4.05%, semi-annually, (?)**
• ABS: ₱0.92/share, around 3.28% p.a.
• BEL: ₱0.12/share, around 3.57% p.a.
• PX: ₱0.04/share, around 0.70%, semi-annually,  (1.41% p.a.)
• BLFI: ₱0.10/share, around 3.19% p.a.
• LR: ₱0.07/share, around 1.53%, semi-annually,  (3.28% p.a.)
• MWC: ₱0.4302/share, around 1.54%, semi-annually,  (3.07% p.a.)

All above % estimates are against price at close of April 30, and are the gross value/share, not taking into account the 10% withholding tax for Filipino citizens. This might inflate the % cash divs due to the recent market downturn.

*Using / 10 as PF became FB and split.

** SCC typically pays out in March and September. I didn’t put in an annual rate as the stock has split 300% and didn’t want to use the last dividend’s payment (taking the split into account).

Received a net (after 10% withholding tax) of around 0.34% of my principal from cash dividends in March (which if the equivalent would occur each month of the year, would equal to around 4.09% p.a.).

Bought in the first half of March 2018

Bought the following shares in the first half of March 2018:

• 9: ROX @ ₱3.38
• 12: AP @ ₱39.95
• 12: COSCO @ ₱7.23
• 12: MRSGI @ ₱3.28
• 13: IMI @ ₱18.26 (tiny odd lot to round out my holdings)
• 15: FNI @ ₱2.64

I succumbed to FOMO in buying LTG last month. I should’ve waited. I finally got to buy some ROX which I’ve been looking at since April last year when it was around ₱2.75

I was wrong in not selling VUL. I have a bit more of a buy and hold strategy, however I should segregate those I invest in, against those I speculate in. I now have a mental note to myself in terms of selling speculative stocks when they have sell signals.

SHLPH finally declared their cash dividends which I’ve been waiting for for some time now (I’ve written separately about it in Apr, Jul and Oct 2017 and Jan 2018). At ₱5.14/share, I’m guessing they’re either making up for the small cash div last year or that must more than 75% of earnings. I’m wondering though why they didn’t just release their cash dividends 2 or 4 times a year as it may make for a less volatile stock price.

I’m still uncertain if I’m buying more MBT just to get more of the ₱75 stock rights.

ALCO, ION, and SMPH are starting to look interesting.

I’ve also been reading and YouTubing some Jack Schwager.

Cash Dividends in Jan 2018

Received the following cash dividends in January:

• AC: ₱3.46/share, around 0.3% annually
• SMC2C: ₱1.50/share, around 1.87%, quarterly (7.50% p.a.)
• SMC2F: ₱1.27635/share, around 1.61%, quarterly (6.47% p.a.)
• DDPR: ₱1.61945/share, around 1.56%, quarterly (6.25% p.a.)
• SMC: ₱0.35/share, around 0.24%, quarterly (0.99% p.a.)
• FGENG: ₱3.8904/share, around 3.48%, semi-annually (6.97% p.a.)
• COSCO: ₱0.10/share, around 1.3% annually

All above % estimates are against price at close of February 23, and are the gross value/share, not taking into account the 10% withholding tax for Filipino citizens.

Received a net (after 10% withholding tax) of around 0.39% of my principal from cash dividends in January (which if the equivalent would occur each month of the year, would equal to around 4.70% p.a.).

I obviously like preferred shares, and around 20% of my portfolio is composed of them. I’ll write about their optional redemption dates in a future post (e.g. SMC2C is September 2019 and I have no intention to buy more now).